REAL ESTATE NEWS...House prices are historically high when compared to rent and pay

 

House prices growing north of 5% when CPI is just 1%

by

Steve Goldstein

An Open House sign directs prospective buyers to property for sale in Monterey Park, Calif.

The latest report on U.S. home prices continued to show growth far ahead of inflation.

According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city composite, prices grew 5.2% in the 12 months ending May.

That continues a streak since September 2012 in which the yearly price appreciation on a house has outpaced consumer prices. In the 12 months ending May, consumer prices grew only 1%.

Clearly, something has to give. Either the economy needs to noticeably rev higher or prices will decelerate, if not fall.

A quick-and-dirty way to value home prices is to compare it to the alternative to owning — namely, renting — and to wages.

First, on rent — as the chart shows, the ratio of house prices to rent has steadily climbed since the 2012 lows. Using data going back to 1976, the current ratio is about 16% higher than the median reading. At the peak, the ratio was 66% higher.

So it’s fair to say that home prices are more expensive than normal, and also that they’re nowhere near as mispriced as they were during the housing bubble.

On pay, there’s a similar story. House prices have steadily marched higher since the trough of 2012, compared to the average weekly pay of nonsupervisory and production workers.

The current ratio is 22% higher than the median ratio since 1976, but at the peak, that ratio was 67% above the median.

Robert Brusca, chief economist of FAO Economics, responded simply to the question of whether house prices look overvalued.

“There’s no other answer than yes, with an exclamation mark. It’s a great time to sell your house,” he said.

Brusca points out that the trend in house prices has been decelerating — despite mortgage rates hovering near record lows.

“It suggests the juice from interest rates isn’t getting into home prices anymore,” he said.

Brusca noted that in the Conference Board consumer confidence report published Tuesday, expectations both for inflation and interest rates declined.

Expectations for higher interest rates in 12 months time plummeted to a three-year low of 51.7% in July from 59.4% in June. The expectation for inflation in 12 months fell to 4.7%, the lowest rate in more than nine years.

Prospective buyers “don’t feel motivation to buy something now,” because mortgage rates are not showing any sign of an imminent rise.

Plus, the average price makes it very difficult for newcomers to get into the housing market. According to Zillow, the median house value in the hot market of Portland, Oregon is $378,600. For a conventional mortgage, that means that $75,720 is needed for a down payment. In 2014, the median household income in Portland was $58,134.

“How do you save that kind of money to get your foot in the door,” Brusca asked.