REAL ESTATE TOPICS...Poll: US House Prices to Rise Almost 5 Percent Next Year

U.S. house prices are set to rise almost 5 percent next year, a bit faster than expected just three months ago despite the real prospect of several interest rate increases, according to the latest Reuters poll of property market analysts.

So far the shock election of Republican Donald Trump as the next U.S. president has done little to change overall views on the housing market, with many saying it was too early to tell but also a significant minority saying their opinion had worsened.

Expectations that Trump's fiscal stimulus plans, through tax cuts, infrastructure spending and reduced regulation, will elevate inflation and lead to swifter rate rises away from the zero bound by the Federal Reserve. That also has pushed mortgage rates higher.

But the relatively fitful economic expansion since the 2008 financial crisis, coupled with poor wage growth despite a historically low unemployment rate of 4.6 percent, still argues strongly against a return to boom times.

"The housing recovery has made steady progress but remains unfinished, based on the economic recovery and the labor market in particular," said Robert Denk, senior economist at National Association of Home Builders. "It's too early to tell what impact Trump's victory will have on the economy."

The poll forecast the S&P/Case Shiller composite index of prices in 20 metropolitan areas would close out this year with a 5.2 percent rise. That followed by 4.8 percent in 2017, recouping nearly all of the roughly 35 percent loss suffered during the financial crisis.

Then it is expected to rise by 4.1 percent rate the following year.

The range of forecasts was broadly unchanged compared to the previous poll. But there was a prediction for house prices to fall outright for the first time since 2012.

When asked about their overall opinion on the future of the U.S. housing market since Trump's victory in the election nearly a month ago, a majority - 14 of 26 - said there was no change, while two said for the better. But 10 analysts said U.S. housing could be worse under the business mogul.

"Our outlook is a lot more volatile now, as very few details exist in terms of future policy. What little does exist tends to skew towards a negative impact," said Svenja Gudell, chief economist at Zillow.