Low interest rates, steady job gains and improving household finances have helped bolster the housing recovery. And even as 2015’s strong first half has given way to some wobbly months of late, housing fundamentals appear primed to withstand a looming U.S. rate increase.
Monday’s report on pending home sales, a key tool in measuring buying momentum, should confirm that trend. Tracked by the National Association of Realtors, it measures purchases of previously owned homes and is based on signed contracts, making it a leading indicator of sorts for the broader housing market. Home sales typically close within a couple months after signing.
While pending home sales hit a nine-year high in May, they have slipped on a monthly basis in three of the past four months. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expect a 1.5% rise in October from a month earlier. And the year-over-year trend remains positive.
The recent stretch evokes fears of what transpired in mid-2013, following the so-called taper tantrum. Back then, interest rates spiked and home sales slumped as the Fed indicated it could start to cut back on monetary stimulus.
The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage surged over a percentage point from April through August in 2013. And pending home sales peaked that June before falling 12% by year’s end. Only this February did pending home sales bounce back to June 2013 levels.
Even so, the taper tantrum caught markets by surprise. Today, there is little shock value in the expected rate increase. And housing conditions remain favorable ahead of the Fed’s big move. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 3.8% in October, the lowest since April, according to Freddie Mac.
The loosening of credit conditions also has helped the housing market. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac cut down-payment standards late last year. The Federal Housing Administration earlier this year reduced the premium it charges for insuring mortgages.
Higher rates are coming, perhaps in a few weeks. Don’t expect them to take an immediate toll on housing.
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