Monday, August 25, 2014

U.S. FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY INCREASES 2 PERCENT IN JULY

REAL ESTATE NEWS

Activity Down 16 Percent from a Year Ago, Continuing Nearly Four-Year Decline 
  Rising Foreclosure Activity Bucks National Trend in Houston, DC, Southern California
IRVINE, Calif. – Aug. 14, 2014 — RealtyTrac® (www.realtytrac.com), the nation’s leading source for comprehensive housing data, today released its U.S. Foreclosure Market Report™ for July 2014, which shows foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 109,434 U.S. properties in July, an increase of 2 percent from the previous month but still down 16 percent from a year ago. The report also shows one in every 1,203 U.S. housing units with a foreclosure filing during the month.
“July was the 46th consecutive month where U.S. foreclosure activity was down on a year-over-year basis,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “After nearly four years of falling foreclosures, we are starting to see evidence that foreclosure numbers are normalizing at the national level. The 16 percent decrease in July was exactly half the annual decrease we saw a year ago in July 2013, when U.S. foreclosure activity was down 32 percent on a year-over-year basis.
“The number of state and local markets with persistent foreclosure problems is becoming fewer and farther between, although there were some surprise spikes in foreclosure activity in July in markets that had previously been experiencing long-term downward trends in foreclosure activity,” Blomquist noted. “For example, Houston foreclosure activity jumped 66 percent in July compared to a year ago following 23 consecutive months of decreases, and Los Angeles foreclosure activity was up 10 percent from a year ago following 31 consecutive months of decreases.”

Other high-level findings from the report:
  • A total of 49,624 U.S. properties started the foreclosure process for the first time in July, a 5 percent increase from the previous month, but still down 18 percent from a year ago — the 24th consecutive month with a year-over-year decrease in U.S. foreclosure starts. 
  • Despite the annual decrease nationally, foreclosure starts increased from a year ago in 14 states, including Nevada (up 128 percent), Texas (up 29 percent), New York (up 17 percent), Massachusetts (up 12 percent), and Michigan (up 6 percent).

  • A total of 51,595 U.S. properties were scheduled for foreclosure auction in July, up 10 percent from the previous month but still down 3 percent from a year ago. Non-judicial foreclosure auctions — those in states not requiring a judge to file a judgment for the foreclosure auction to proceed — increased 26 percent from June to July, but were still down 7 percent on a year-over-year basis. 
  • Despite the annual decrease nationally, scheduled foreclosure auctions increased from a year ago in 20 states, including New Jersey (up 105 percent), Oregon (up 50 percent), Louisiana (up 32 percent), Utah (up 30 percent), Connecticut (up 18 percent), and New York (up 16 percent).
  • A total of 25,937 U.S. properties were repossessed by lenders via foreclosure (REO) in July, down 4 percent from the previous month and down 30 percent from a year ago to the lowest level since April 2007. 
  • Despite the decrease nationally, bank repossessions increased from a year ago in seven states, including Maryland (up 77 percent), California (up 22 percent), Oregon (up 13 percent), and New Jersey (up 12 percent).
Rising foreclosure activity bucks national trend in five of 20 largest metro areas
Foreclosure activity increased from a year ago in five of the nation’s 20 most populous metropolitan statistical areas, contrary to the national trend.

The Houston metro area posted the biggest annual increase in foreclosure activity from a year ago among the 20 largest metro areas, up 66 percent. The increase in Houston came on the heels of 23 consecutive months of decreasing foreclosure activity on an annual basis and was driven primarily by a 116 percent jump in scheduled foreclosure auctions — the first public notice starting the foreclosure process in Texas.
Washington, D.C., documented the second highest annual increase in foreclosure activity in July, up 24 percent from a year ago. July marked 14 of the last 17 months where DC metro area foreclosure activity has increased on an annual basis.
Due to rebounding bank repossessions (REOs), Southern California metro areas posted annual increases in foreclosure activity following 31 consecutive months of decreasing activity on a year-over-year basis. San Diego overall foreclosure activity increased 12 percent from a year ago after seeing a 40 percent jump in REOs; Los Angeles overall foreclosure activity increased 10 percent from a year ago thanks to a 58 percent jump in REOs; and Riverside-San Bernardino foreclosure activity increased 3 percent from a year ago because of a 27 percent jump in REOs.
Among all 212 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of 200,000 or more, one-third (69) posted increasing foreclosure activity from a year ago while two-thirds (143) posted decreasing foreclosure activity from a year ago.
“Just a few years ago foreclosures and short sales were a necessary part of the real estate market.  Today this is no longer the case,” said Greg Smith, owner/broker of RE/MAX Alliance, covering the Denver, Colo. market, where foreclosure activity decreased 15 percent from a year ago and the foreclosure rate ranked 139th out of the 212 metro areas ranked in the report.  “Because of strong property appreciation and more conservative lending requirements, we are seeing very few properties go through the foreclosure process and many homeowners are no longer upside down removing the need for a short sale.”

“The housing market is coming back slowly,” said Sheldon Detrick, CEO ofPrudential Detrick/Alliance Realty, covering the Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Okla. markets, which had foreclosure rates ranking No. 76 and 66 respectively in July despite an increase in activity from the previous month.  “We do not have distressed properties in the market like we used to and our REO inventory continues to go down.”
Florida, Maryland, Nevada, Illinois, Ohio post top state foreclosure rates
Florida foreclosure activity decreased 30 percent on a year-over-year basis in July — the 12th consecutive month with an annual decrease — but the state still posted the nation’s highest state foreclosure rate for the 10th consecutive month. One in every 469 Florida housing units had a foreclosure filing in July, more than two and a half times the national average.
Maryland foreclosure activity in July increased 5 percent from the previous month and was up 9 percent from a year ago — continuing a two-year trend in rising foreclosure activity in the state. One in every 553 Maryland housing units had a foreclosure filing during the month, the nation’s second highest state foreclosure rate for the sixth consecutive month.
Following nine consecutive months of annual decreases, Nevada foreclosure activity in July increased 15 percent from a year ago and was up 36 percent on a month-over-month basis, boosting the state’s foreclosure rate to third highest nationally after ranking sixth highest in June. One in every 639 Nevada housing units had a foreclosure filing during the month.
Illinois foreclosure activity decreased 9 percent from a year ago in July, the 20th consecutive month where the state’s foreclosure activity has decreased on an annual basis, but Illinois still posted the nation’s fourth highest foreclosure rate: one in every 747 housing units with a foreclosure filing.
Ohio foreclosure activity decreased 24 percent from a year ago in July, the 11th consecutive month where the state’s foreclosure activity has decreased on an annual basis, but Ohio still posted the nation’s fifth highest foreclosure rate: one in every 839 housing units with a foreclosure filing.
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“The Ohio markets have noticed an overall reduction in sales volume since the first of the year as well as reduction in foreclosure sales volume throughout the state,” said Michael Mahon, executive Vice President/ broker at HER Realtors, covering the Cincinnati, Columbus and Dayton, Ohio markets.  “As prices continue to rise, our anticipation is that foreclosures will continue to decline as home owners experience restored, higher equity levels.”
Other states with foreclosure rates among the nation’s 10 highest in July were South Carolina at No. 6 (one in every 893 housing units with a foreclosure filing); Indiana at No. 7 (one in every 911 housing units); Delaware at No. 8 (one in every 948 housing units); Utah at No. 9 (one in every 1,010 housing units); and California at No. 10 (one in every 1,032 housing units).
Florida metros account for eight of 10 highest metro foreclosure rates
Florida accounted for the eight highest foreclosure rates among metropolitan statistical areas with a population of 200,000 or more in July, led by Ocala at No. 1, with one in every 296 housing units with a foreclosure filing — more than four times the national average.
The other Florida cities in the top 10 were Orlando-Kissimmee at No. 2 (one in every 357 housing units with a foreclosure filing); Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville at No. 3 (one every 404 housing units); Lakeland at No. 4 (one in every 407 housing units); Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach at No. 5 (one in every 421 housing units); Port St. Lucie at No. 6 (one in every 434 housing units); Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater at No. 7 (one in every 448 housing units); and Cape Coral-Fort Myers at No. 8 (one in every 478 housing units).
The two cities outside of Florida with top 10 foreclosure rates were Columbia, S.C., at No. 9 (one in every 484 housing units with a foreclosure filing); and Akron, Ohio, at No. 10 (one in every 525 housing units).

Affordability Approaches Pre-2004 Norm as Prices Firm

REAL ESTATE TOPICS


Affordability Approaches Pre-2004 Norm as Prices Firm

Housing affordability dipped slightly in the second quarter of 2014 as several markets saw a firming of home prices, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI).  Nationwide, the second quarter HOI was 62.6—i.e., 62.6 percent of new and existing homes sold during the quarter were affordable to a family earning the U.S. median income of $63,900—down about three percentage points from the first quarter reading of 65.5.
HOI 2014Q2The latest readings reflect a slow but steady march toward historically normal appreciation and interest rates, producing an HOI typical of the period before the mid-2000s boom.  In the second quarter of 2014, the average mortgage interest rate declined to 4.44 percent (from 4.57 in the first quarter), while the national median home price increased from $195,000 to $214,000. (The HOI, of course, uses the full range of home sale prices, not just the median.)
Among individual metros, Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Pa. claimed the title of the nation’s most affordable major housing market, as 90.4 percent of all new and existing homes sold in this year’s second quarter were affordable to a family earning the area’s median income of $52,700. Cumberland, Md.-W.Va. was the most affordable smaller market, with 97.2 percent of homes sold affordable to a family earning the area median income of $54,100.
Other major markets at the top of the affordability chart were Indianapolis-Carmel, Ind.; Syracuse, N.Y.; Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pa.; and Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, Pa. Smaller markets joining Cumberland at the top of the affordability chart were Kokomo, Ind.; Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, Iowa-Ill.; Battle Creek, Mich.; and Lima, Ohio.
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For a seventh consecutive quarter, San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, Calif. was the nation’s least affordable major market, with only 11.1 percent of homes sold in the second quarter affordable to a family earning the area’s median income of $100,400.  Other major metros at the bottom of the affordability chart were Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Calif.; Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif.; San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.; and New York-White Plains-Wayne, N.Y.-N.J.
All five of the nation’s least affordable small housing markets were located in California: Santa Cruz-Watsonville, Napa, Salinas, Santa Rosa-Petaluma, and San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles.

Friday, August 22, 2014

TALKING POINTS....California

REAL ESTATE TOPICS

TALKING POINTS …
  • California home sales posted higher for the second straight month, and while the statewide median home price rose from the previous month as well as a year ago, the pace of appreciation continued to slow, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.).
  • Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 398,940 units in July, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide.  July marked the ninth straight month that sales were below the 400,000 level and a full year that sales have declined on a year-over-year basis.
  • Sales in July increased 1.2 percent from a revised 394,250 in June but were down 10 percent from a revised 443,500 in July 2013.  The July 2014 sales rate was the highest since October 2013.  The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2014 if sales maintained the July pace throughout the year.
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Two Good Omens for Housing Market

REAL ESTATE TOPICS


After a harsh winter, the nation’s modest housing recovery appears to be back on track.
Home construction increased sharply in July, the Commerce Department reported on Tuesday, as Home Depot, whose fate is tied closely to the housing market, announced a strong quarter.
The government said housing starts last month were up nearly 16 percent over June, and almost 22 percent over 12 months ago.
For Home Depot, the country’s largest home improvement retailer, the uptick in demand gave second-quarter earnings a lift. Big-ticket purchases, like appliances, windows and water heaters, increased. The company also reported strong growth among its high-spending professional clients — which indicates that they have work.
“We believe, in many ways, it’s because of housing, and the fact that housing, while not as robust as last year, continues to recover,” Carol B. Tomé, Home Depot’s chief financial officer, said of the company’s strong results.
Though Tuesday’s numbers from both the government and Home Depot were each higher than analysts anticipated, economists did not expect to see similar types of surges in housing in the months to come.
Continue reading the main story

Housing Construction

New private housing starts and permits authorized during the month, at a seasonally adjusted annual pace.
JULY
Starts
Permits
1,093,000
1,052,000
1.2 million
0.8
0.4
0
’13
’14
Some of July’s gains reported by the Commerce Department were in the South, a huge market that showed improvement in both single and multifamily construction after drying out from an exceptionally rainy and muddy spring. Other bright spots in Tuesday’s report were in the multifamily sector, but economists regard those month-to-month numbers as volatile.
Last month’s housing starts were at an annual rate of 1.093 million units, the highest reading since November. Single-family housing starts in July increased 8.3 percent over the revised June figure of 606,000, and were at a rate of 656,000. The July rate for multifamily housing was 423,000, showing the strongest level of starts since 2006.
In another positive sign, July applications for building permits, which foreshadow construction plans for future, were up 8.1 percent over the previous month.
Most analysts viewed July’s big leap as having little impact on overall trends in housing, where price increases are slowing down.
“With the stock of homes for sale well above its cycle lows, price gains slowing and new-home sales flat, it is hard to see why construction would keep rising,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a note to clients.
Several major factors are holding up the housing recovery. Household formation is almost flat, and well below the 50-year average, said Tom Showalter, chief analytics officer at Digital Risk, which provides mortgage services and risk analytics to lenders. Also, wage growth, which drives housing prices, is still sluggish.
Continue reading the main story
A growing economy and improvements in the job market must continue to keep the housing market on track, Mr. Showalter said. He expects home price appreciation to level off and potentially become negative by the end of the year.
“We’re getting some increased demand, so that’s very good,” Mr. Showalter said. “The question is, Can the economy sustain the demand? And that’s a big if.”
At Home Depot, sales in the second quarter increased 5.7 percent, to $23.8 billion, from $22.5 billion in the period a year earlier. The company’s earnings were $2.05 billion, or $1.52 a share, which exceeded analysts’ expectations and were up from $1.8 billion, or $1.24 a share, in the second quarter of 2013.
The most crucial housing metric to home improvement retailers is home price appreciation, Ms. Tomé said. When people see their home as an investment, she said, they are more likely to spend money on it than if they see their home as an expense. So as home values rise and people see more equity in their home, they are more likely to spend money to spruce it up.
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While home price appreciation growth is lower than it was last year, Ms. Tomé said, “It’s still good news; it’s still headed in the right direction.”
The company said it now expected diluted earnings per share to be up about 20.2 percent, to $4.52 for the year. Its previous guidance was $4.42.
The good news comes at a crucial time of the year for Home Depot as spring is the most important selling season for home improvement retailers. Those warming months are when consumers head into the garden to tend their flowers or go up on a ladder to patch the roof or replace the windows. But weather can be a big factor in a consumer’s decision to start a home improvement project that will require many hours outdoors.
For the first quarter, which includes the beginning of the spring selling season — and the end of an extraordinarily cold and difficult winter — the company reported disappointing results. Sales at existing stores in the Northeast declined from the year before, and sales at existing stores in its Southern and Western divisions increased.

Housing construction surges in July

REAL ESTATE NEWS

Housing construction bounced back in July, hitting its highest level in eight months as the sector shows signs of picking up pace in the second half of the year.
After two months of drops, construction jumped 15.7 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.09 million homes, the fastest pace since the 1.11 million posted in November, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.
Last month's level also is 21.7 percent above the July 2013 rate of 898,000.
"A return to production levels over 1 million confirms that consumer confidence continues to improve," said Kevin Kelly, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder and developer from Wilmington, Del.
"Propelled by a healthier economy, more and more people are feeling ready to buy a home."
Construction had fallen 4 percent in June and 7.4 percent in May, dropping below the benchmark level of 1 million homes.
Another positive sign for the housing market was the 8.1 percent gain in building permit applications. Permits hit 1.05 million, the highest level since April, after drops in May and June. 
Single-family home construction rebounded in July, rising 8.3 percent. Meanwhile, apartment construction helped boost last month's number behind a 33 percent jump.
Regionally, housing starts rose 44 percent in the Northeast and took a huge swing for the positive in the South with a 29 percent gain after a drop in June. 
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Construction in the West was up 18.6 percent, while it fell sharply in the Midwest by 24.8 percent from what was considered an unusually high level in June. 
Homebuilders reported on Monday that they are more confident in the market as job gains continue and buyer traffic picks up.  
Meanwhile, home prices are moderating and loan rates are hovering near historic levels, another good sign for the next few months.  
"July's increase in starts combined with rising builder sentiment proves that June's production dip was more of an anomaly than a reversal of the market," said David Crowe, NAHB's chief economist. "We should continue to see a gradual, consistent recovery throughout the rest of the year."

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

TALKING POINTS....Fed's ease standards

REAL ESTATE TOPICS

HIGH HOUSING COSTS ARE A DRAG ON CALIFORNIA'S ECONOMY, REPORT SAYS
Source: L.A. Times

A shortage of housing – especially at affordable prices – is becoming a bigger drag on the state’s economy, according to a new report from forecasting firm Beacon Economics. That being said, the pace of home sales in California should pick up in the second half of this year and into next. The firm predicts annual price growth of 4 to 6 percent for the next two years, a more sustainable pace than the double-digit gains seen for much of the last two years.


FED SURVEY: MORTGAGE STANDARDS EASE FOR FIRST TIME SINCE HOUSING BUST
Source: Wall St. Journal
Nearly one in four U.S. banks said they had eased mortgage-lending standards for borrowers with strong credit during the second quarter, the largest such movement by lenders since the housing bust hit nearly eight years ago. Demand for prime mortgages rebounded to its highest level in a year, according to the Fed survey, offering a hopeful sign for housing markets that have stumbled during the first half of the year.

MOVING FROM RENTING TO HOMEOWNERSHIP COULD GET EASIER
Source: HousingWire
 
For some potential homeowners, adding in rental history to a credit score could make all the difference in securing a mortgage. In a survey of 20,000 people in government-subsidized housing, 59 percent of that group would have prime credit scores if rental history was added to credit score evaluations. Notably, it was reported earlier this summer that mortgage lenders might start considering rent payment history in credit scores.



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TALKING POINTS....

REAL ESTATE TOPICS

TALKING POINTS …
  • Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 7.5 percent in June 2014 compared to June 2013, according to CoreLogic. This change represents 28 months of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices nationally.
  • On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 1 percent in June 2014 compared to May 2014.
  • At the state level, including distressed sales, only Arkansas posted a decline in June 2014 with 0.4-percent depreciation. A total of 12 states, plus the District of Columbia, reached new highs in the Home Price Index dating back to January 1976, when the index started. These states are Alaska, Colorado, District of Columbia, Iowa, Louisiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Wyoming.
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AFFORDABLE HOUSING DRAWS MIDDLE CLASS TO INLAND CITIES

REAL ESTATE TOPICS


AFFORDABLE HOUSING DRAWS MIDDLE CLASS TO INLAND CITIES
Source: New York Times
Domestic migration patterns within the U.S. are increasingly being driven by the quest for cheaper housing, so the country’s fastest-growing cities are now those where housing is more affordable than average. The desire for a new, better, or cheaper home and the opportunity to buy instead of rent were among the housing-related reasons people increasingly cited for moving.
Making sense of the story
  • Moving inland to states in the heart of the country is a decisive reversal from the early years of the millennium, when easy credit allowed cities to grow without regard to housing cost and when the fastest-growing cities had housing that was less affordable than the national average.
  • Among people who have moved long distances, the number of those who cite housing as their primary motivation for doing so has more than doubled since 2007.
  • Rising rents and the difficulty of securing a mortgage on the coasts have proved a boon to inland cities that offer the middle class a firmer footing and an easier life.
  • For example, Oklahoma City has outpaced most other cities in growth since 2011. Other affordable cities that have jumped in the growth rankings include several in Texas, including El Paso and San Antonio, as well as Columbus, Ohio, and Little Rock, Ark.
  • Tony Trammell, one of a group of about a dozen friends to make the move from San Diego, paid $260,000 for his 3,300-square-foot home in a nearby suburb. “This is the opposite of the gold rush,” Mr. Trammell said.
  • For those who moved more than 500 miles, the share who said they were chiefly motivated by housing has risen to 18 percent in 2014, from 8 percent in 2007.
  • Glenn Kelman, the chief executive of Redfin, said that when the company started its real estate service in 2006, he expected the business to thrive in coastal centers. “Now we’re growing fastest in the middle of the country; we can’t hire people fast enough in Houston, in Dallas, in Denver. And all of our customers come from the same place — the airport.”

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