Friday, February 27, 2015

REAL ESTATE TRENDS...U.S. New-Home Sizes Set Record Last Year


  • By
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  • NICK TIMIRAOS
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Like waistlines, American homes keep getting bigger.
The median size of completed homes last year hit a new record of 2,415 square feet, according to the Commerce Department.
Home sizes grew in every year between 1995 and 2007, but they fell during the recession as builders went small to compete with cheap foreclosures.
When the recession hit, “all the pundits [said], ‘The McMansion is dead,’” Douglas Yearley, chief executive of luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc.TOL +0.34% told investors last fall. “But the American dream is still to chase the big beautiful home with the lavish master suite and the spectacular gourmet kitchen and the finished basement that has the wine room and the media room.”
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Home sizes are rising even as sales have slowed because builders have competed for affluent buyers who aren’t likely to run into trouble qualifying for a mortgage and saving for a down payment. In January, builders sold 481,000 homes at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, down 0.2% from December, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Sales in 2014 were up just 1.9% from the year before.
At the same time, builders sold slightly more homes priced above $400,000 than those priced below $200,000 for the first time ever last year. Around 4.8% of homes sold for at least $750,000, a new record.
Still, there are signs that home sizes won’t set new records this year. The size of homes in which builders started construction ticked down last year after peaking in the first quarter. That could be a sign builders have concluded that they need to refocus on entry level buyers if they want to increase sales.

REAL ESTATE NEWS....Low inventory may take bloom off spring home sales

By Diana Olick
prices are beginning to grow at a faster pace again, which is not good for the spring market.
Sticker shock was behind weak sales in 2014, but as price gains began to ease, buyers came back. Now prices are heating up again due to severely weak supply.
There were nearly 9 percent fewer homes for sale in January of this year than there were a year ago, according to Realtor.com.
"January's inventory data suggest a continuation of the tightening trend we identified last month in the December data, and with a shortage of inventory typically comes increased home prices," said Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Realtor.com. "Half of the 200 markets Realtor.com tracks experienced year-over-year price increases of at least 6 percent in January."
Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Higher prices, coupled with weak supply, caused an unexpectedly large drop in January home sales, down nearly 5 percent from January of 2014, according to the National Association of Realtors.
"This is a notable speed bump," said NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, who deemed the phenomenon, "puzzling," given a stronger economy and rising rents.
There is strong demand, but it is hitting a roadblock in supply. Listings are down significantly in parts of California and in formerly strong markets like Las Vegas and Denver, according to Realtor.com. Texas is also seeing a very tight market as well as Chicago and Boston.
According to running surveys by Realtor.com, potential buyers are saying they can't find a home that meets their needs and/or budget. Usually inventory drags are more localized, but today's market is behaving more nationally than in the past.
"Typically for a home seller in the past, they live in their home for seven years and then make a move," said Yun. "Now we're seeing home sellers are living in their home for 10 years."
Yun blames what he calls a "lock-in" effect—that homeowners today have such good mortgage rates that they don't want to lose that rate by moving. Others disagree.
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"I think of the lock-in effect as mattering if rates are rising from low levels, so that the rate someone would get on their next home would be higher than the rate they've had on the home they're selling," said Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia. "However, rates didn't start their recent rise until February, and these inventory and sales data are for January."
More likely, people aren't selling because they can't afford a move up, or because they still owe more on their current mortgages than their homes are worth. Somewhere between 7 million and 10 million borrowers are underwater, and millions more don't have enough equity in their homes to afford to sell and move up.
As for first-time buyers, their share dropped in January to just 28 percent of homebuyers; this after a slight improvement in their activity last fall. Rents continue to rise, and ironically keep renters from seeking what is often more affordable homeownership.
"Widespread and rapid growth in rents, combined with stagnant wages, are keeping many would-be buyers stuck in rental housing, writing ever-larger checks to their landlords instead of saving for a down payment. Today's renters are tomorrow's buyers, and the longer these would-be buyers stay on the sidelines, the longer full recovery will take," said Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow.
Bethesda, Maryland, real estate agent Jane Fairweather expects to see a strong spring.
"Judging by my desk, we will be putting a boatload of homes on the market in March and April," she said, but admitted: "I think demand will be greater than supply again this year. Low inventory keeps prices propped up."
Now, as home prices begin rising ever more quickly, homeownership lurches further out of reach. New supply would certainly help, but even the builders are still operating at an anemic pace. Newly built homes come at a significant price premium to existing homes, and therefore sales have not been as robust for the builders.

Thursday, February 26, 2015

REAL ESTATE NEWS (California)...January pending sales and Market Pulse Survey

For release:
February 25, 2015
California pending home sales lift in January after disappointing December
Fewer multiple offers and more homes sold below asking price point to less competitive buyers’ market
LOS ANGELES (Feb. 25) – Pending home sales rose from December’s extreme lows and posted month-to-month and year-to-year increases in January, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today. 
Additionally, California REALTORS® responding to C.A.R.’s January Market Pulse Survey saw more price reductions and an increase in open house traffic, compared to a year ago.  The Market Pulse Survey is a new monthly online survey of more than 300 California REALTORS® to measure sentiment about their last closed transaction and business activity for the previous month and the last year.
Pending home sales data:

• California pending home sales increased in January, with the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* rising 26.7 percent from 70.9 in December to 89.8 in January, based on signed contracts.  The month-to-month increase was better than the long-run average increase of 16.3 percent observed in the last six years, and is attributed primarily to seasonal factors.
• California pending home sales were up 6 percent from the 84.7 index recorded in January 2014.  The yearly increase was the largest since May 2012.
Equity and distressed housing market data:
• The share of equity sales – or non-distressed property sales – fell for the third straight month in January.  Equity sales made up 88 percent of all sales in January, down from 89.8 percent recorded in December.  Equity sales have been more than 80 percent of total sales since July 2013 and have risen at or near 90 percent since mid-2014. Equity sales made up 84.3 percent of sales in January 2014.
• Conversely, the combined share of all distressed property sales rose in January, up from 10.2 percent in December to 12 percent in January.  Distressed sales made up 15.7 percent of total sales a year ago.  Fourteen of the 42 counties that C.A.R. reported show month-to-month decreases in their distressed sales shares, with Mariposa having the smallest share of distressed sales at 0 percent, and Glenn having the highest at 33 percent. 
January REALTOR® Market Pulse Survey**:
• Indicative of a less competitive buyers’ market, the percentage of homes selling above asking price has dropped from its peak of 40 percent in March 2014 to 16 percent in January.  The share is also down from 25 percent during the previous month and 27 percent a year ago.  More than half of homes (55 percent) are closing below asking price, up from 51 percent in December 2014.
• In January, homes that sold below asking price sold for 11 percent below asking price, down slightly from 13 percent in December.  The share of homes with listing price reductions is up from 20 percent in June 2014 to 31 percent in January, indicating sellers’ expectations still are not in line with buyers’ expectations.
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• Fifty-eight percent of properties received multiple offers in January, down from 61 percent in December 2014 and 64 percent a year ago.
• The average number of offers per property in January was 2.5, down from 2.6 in December 2014 and 3.1 a year ago.

• While floor calls, listing appointments, open house traffic, multiple offers, and all-cash purchases were down from December 2014, REALTORS® indicated open house traffic was up from January a year ago.

Share of Distressed Sales to Total Sales(Single-family)
Type of SaleJan-15Dec-14Jan-14
Equity Sales88.0%89.8%84.3%
Total Distressed Sales12.0%10.2%15.7%
     REOs5.8%4.7%6.1%
     Short Sales5.6%5.1%9.1%
     Other Distressed Sales (Not Specified) 0.6%0.4%0.5%
All Sales 100.0%100.0%100.0%
Single-family Distressed Home Sales by Select Counties
(Percent of total sales)
CountyJan-15Dec-14Jan-14
Alameda5%3%10%
Amador9%10%21%
Butte13%18%16%
Calaveras22%14%NA
Contra Costa9%6%12%
El Dorado12%14%20%
Fresno19%19%26%
Glenn33%40%33%
Humboldt9%14%17%
Kern14%13%19%
Kings25%26%45%
Lake21%20%50%
Los Angeles10%9%16%
Madera12%13%14%
Marin6%2%13%
Mariposa0%7%57%
Mendocino19%25%19%
Merced11%10%27%
Monterey2%9%17%
Napa15%3%17%
Orange8%6%9%
Placer12%7%15%
Plumas30%11%NA
Riverside15%12%16%
Sacramento18%13%20%
San Benito6%8%18%
San Bernardino17%14%22%
San Diego8%6%4%
San Joaquin13%13%25%
San Luis Obispo8%6%10%
San Mateo2%2%7%
Santa Clara4%3%8%
Santa Cruz9%2%12%
Shasta19%20%19%
Siskiyou24%26%34%
Solano15%11%22%
Sonoma8%6%11%
Stanislaus15%12%25%
Sutter15%20%17%
Tulare22%16%20%
Yolo14%10%13%
Yuba25%22%24%
California12%10%16%

REAL ESTATE TOPICS...AGE IS JUST A NUMBER: SINGLE FEMALE BABY BOOMERS HAPPIER, HEALTHIER THAN EVER

ATLANTA, Feb. 18, 2015 – The adage “youth is wasted on the young” doesn’t apply to today’s single, female Baby Boomers. In fact, 76 percent of single women over 55 feel younger than their age, according to new data from Del Webb, a national brand of PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM), one of the nation’s largest homebuilders.
The first data in a series of new results from the recently conducted Del Webb Baby Boomer Survey of single, Baby Boomer women, finds that 74 percent of respondents are as happy, or happier, than they were at age 35 and nearly half (45 percent) believe their best years are yet to come.
Building specifically for homebuyers ages 55 and older, Del Webb is America’s largest builder of active adult communities with more than 50 Del Webb communities in 21 states. Of the 76 million Baby Boomers, recent U.S. Census data shows that as many as 28 million (or 37 percent) are single females. Del Webb has conducted more than ten Baby Boomer surveys since 1996. The 2015 Del Webb Baby Boomer Survey is the first time ever that the company has exclusively surveyed this unique demographic to take a closer look at who they are and what really matters to them.
Building specifically for homebuyers ages 55 and older, Del Webb is America’s largest builder of active adult communities with more than 50 Del Webb communities in 21 states. Of the 76 million Baby Boomers, recent U.S. Census data shows that as many as 28 million (or 37 percent) are single females. Del Webb has conducted more than ten Baby Boomer surveys since 1996. The 2015 Del Webb Baby Boomer Survey is the first time ever that the company has exclusively surveyed this unique demographic to take a closer look at who they are and what really matters to them.
“Boomer homebuyer preferences and trends have changed dramatically in the 55 years since the first Del Webb community opened, but none stand out more than this generation’s movement toward an active lifestyle that rivals people half of their age,” said Ryan Marshall, executive vice president of homebuilding operations, PulteGroup. “Single, female Boomers have emerged as a powerful demographic. They have diverse needs, and it is incumbent on us to develop communities that offer an overall experience that reflects all that they want out of life.”
The study finds that the single, female Boomer demographic is incredibly confident. According to the 2015 Del Webb Baby Boomer Survey, not only do 80 percent of respondents rank having self-confidence as “very important,” but 76 percent are more empowered now than they were at age 35. In fact, more than one-in-five (22 percent) say they also feel more attractive than they were at 35.
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That confidence may be attributed to the fact that 54 percent of single, female Boomers are as active or more active today than they were at 35. The 2015 Del Webb Baby Boomer Survey shows that four-in-five (81 percent) of single, female Boomers rank being physically healthy as “very important,” and 68 percent of respondents rank a healthy lifestyle as their first priority, after time with family and friends.
Healthy lifestyle habits among this demographic include a number of high-energy activities, including some that may be unexpected. Nearly two-thirds (59 percent) of respondents report exercising at least a few times a week, engaging in activities including:
  • Weight training (27 percent)
  • Hiking (19 percent)
  • Yoga (18 percent)
  • Biking (16 percent)
  • Swimming (14 percent)
Other activities mentioned by respondents include tai chi, free-style dancing and horseback riding, among others.
“The lifestyle that single, female Boomers are embracing may be surprising to some, but it embodies what we see every day among our residents and prospective homebuyers,” said Lindy Oliva, division president, PulteGroup. “Understanding that Del Webb residents demand a lifestyle defined by independence, vibrancy, engagement and fulfillment, has shaped the community designs and amenities offered in Del Webb communities for the past five decades.”
Additional data on this dynamic demographic will be released throughout the year, including sentiments related to dating, home preferences and financial security/retirement. For more information, visit www.pultegroupinc.com.
About the Del Webb Baby Boomer Survey
The Del Webb Baby Boomer Survey polled 1,020 single, female U.S. adults ages 50-68. The survey was conducted online by Nielsen from December 1-8, 2014. Findings for the total sample are projectable to the universe of 50-68-year-old U.S. females. At a 95 percent confidence level, a margin of sample error of +/- 4 percent applies to the sample. Since 1996, Del Webb has conducted more than ten Baby Boomer surveys to better understand this large, powerful demographic.
About Del Webb
Del Webb is a national brand of PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM). Del Webb is the pioneer in active adult communities and America’s leading builder of new homes targeted to preretirement and retiring boomers. Del Webb builds consumer inspired homes and communities for active adults ages 55+ who want to continue to explore, grow and learn, socially, physically and intellectually as they look forward to retirement. For more information on Del Webb, visit www.delwebb.com.
About PulteGroup, Inc.
PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM), based in Atlanta, Ga., is one of America’s largest homebuilding companies with operations in approximately 50 markets throughout the country. Through its brand portfolio that includes Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb and DiVosta Homes, the company is one of the industry’s most versatile homebuilders able to meet the needs of multiple buyer groups and respond to changing consumer demand. PulteGroup conducts extensive research to provide homebuyers with innovative solutions and consumer inspired homes and communities to make lives better.

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

REAL ESTATE NEWS...Mortgage Loan Rates Post Third Straight Weekly Rise

WALL ST. 
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released its report on mortgage applications Wednesday morning, noting a week-over-week decrease of 3.5% in the group’s seasonally adjusted composite index for the week ending February 20. That followed a drop of 13.2% for the week ending February 13. Mortgage loan rates increased on all five types of loans for the second consecutive week.

On an unadjusted basis, the composite index decreased by 12% week-over-week. The seasonally adjusted purchase index increased 5% compared to the week ended February 13. The unadjusted purchase index fell by 2% for the week and is now 2% lower year-over-year.
Home buying action is typically slow in January and February due to wintry weather. Home price increases have fallen sharply year-over-year, as Tuesday’s Case-Shiller home price index indicated. Interest rates are rising, likely in an effort to attract bond investors.
Adjustable rate mortgage loans accounted for 5.2% of all applications, down from 5.3% in the prior week.
The MBA’s refinance index decreased 8% week-over-week, and the percentage of all new applications that were seeking refinancing declined from 66% in the prior week to 62%.
The FHA share of all applications rose from 15.2% a week ago to 15.3%, and the VA share decreased from 8.0% to 9.6%.
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The average mortgage loan rate for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased from 3.93% to 3.99%. The rate for a jumbo 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased from 3.92% to 4.09%. The average interest rate for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage increased from 3.24% to 3.28%.
The contract interest rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage loan rose from 3.09% to 3.28%. Rates on a 30-year FHA-backed fixed rate loan rose from 3.73% to 3.82%.